At Progressive Field, the Minnesota Twins found themselves grappling with another disappointing game, blowing a three-run lead to fall 4-3 to the Cleveland Guardians. This defeat comes in the wake of a troubling trend for the Twins, who have now lost 18 of their last 27 games, significantly denting their playoff aspirations.
The game took a decisive turn in the bottom of the eighth inning when Griffin Jax surrendered a game-winning two-run homer to Kyle Manzardo. This moment encapsulated the Twins' recent struggles to close out games, as echoed in the words of pitcher Pablo López, "Our margin of error keeps shrinking and shrinking. Now it's to the point where you've got to take it one day at a time, one pitch at a time, one at-bat at a time. Today will be a tough pill to swallow."
A Waning Wild-Card Lead
Despite their slump, the Twins still cling to the third AL wild-card spot, though their lead has dwindled to just 1 1/2 games. The decline in their postseason odds from 95.4% to 76.4% as noted by FanGraphs highlights the precarious nature of their current position.
Adding to their woes, the team's offensive production has been woefully inconsistent. In 12 of their last 27 games, the Twins failed to score more than three runs. During this stretch, they have batted .236 with a .296 on-base percentage and a .381 slugging percentage—numbers that don’t inspire confidence in a playoff push.
Manager Rocco Baldelli voiced his frustration, pointing to the team's offensive struggles as a critical factor: "If we're able to do what we need to do on the offensive end, we win, but we did not. We have to do better and we have to put nine innings together."
Bullpen and Rotation Issues
The bullpen, once a reliable asset, has faltered significantly. After maintaining a 3.84 ERA and ranking tenth in the league in win probability added (plus-3.41) in their first 123 games, the bullpen's numbers have plummeted. Over the recent 27-game period, the bullpen has an ERA of 5.47 and a league-worst minus-2.75 win probability added. Reliever Griffin Jax captured the collective sentiment, stating, "It's pretty heartbreaking. We're kind of running on fumes as a staff."
It's not just the bullpen that's been problematic. The rest of the rotation has posted a 6.07 ERA during the last 27 games and averaged just 4.38 innings per start. Such struggles have left the Twins vulnerable late in games. They've had the lead in the seventh inning or later in five of their last 18 losses and were tied in the seventh inning or later on two other occasions.
Roster Moves and Upcoming Challenges
In an attempt to steady the ship, the Twins recently claimed lefty Cole Irvin off waivers from the Baltimore Orioles. With a 4.86 ERA in 16 starts and nine relief appearances, Irvin is seen as a versatile addition. Team executive Derek Falvey explained, "We were thinking, how do we lengthen out what we already have? He could be your prototypical swingman who can pitch out of the bullpen. We don't have a left-handed starter in the mix right now either. He just adds another guy that we think can help."
The Detroit Tigers and Seattle Mariners are nipping at their heels, just two games behind in the standings. However, the Twins hold critical tiebreakers over both rivals, offering a slim buffer as they battle to hold their wild-card spot. The Tigers have been surging, going 23-10 in their last 33 games, adding pressure to the Twins' playoff pursuit.
Looking for Positives
There are some silver linings. Max Kepler is expected to return, potentially bolstering the lineup. Additionally, Byron Buxton and Carlos Correa have shown signs of life, combining to go 5 for 15 with two doubles and a homer this month.
Despite the uphill battle, there's a shared understanding within the team of what needs to be done. As Baldelli emphasized, "We have to find ourselves as a team. We've been looking over the last month as far as who we are and how we're going to do this." Whether they can rediscover their winning form remains to be seen, but the urgency within the clubhouse is palpable.
With the season winding down, the Twins are well aware that their margin for error is nearly non-existent. Each game, each at-bat, and each pitch will be critical in determining their postseason fate. For now, the focus remains on taking it one day at a time.