As the NFL season marches forward, the Atlanta Falcons find themselves grappling with an unsettling trend: a four-game skid punctuated by offensive struggles. Averaging just 14.25 points per game in this stretch, the Falcons' offensive unit is leaving much to be desired, despite efforts to revitalize with promising draft picks such as Michael Penix Jr., selected eighth overall last April. Ahead of crucial upcoming matchups against the Raiders, Giants, Commanders, and Panthers, the Falcons recognize the need to recalibrate and return to winning ways.
Falcons' Defensive Efforts
While the Falcons' offensive woes persist, their defense provides a glimmer of hope. Between Week 11 and Week 13, Atlanta's defense ranked eighth in Expected Points Added (EPA) per play during non-garbage-time scenarios—a testament to their ability to contain opponents even as the offense struggles to find rhythm. Yet, consistency remains elusive, as nine of Atlanta's 13 games have been settled by a single score entering the final quarter.
Kirk Cousins: A Double-Edged Sword
The addition of quarterback Kirk Cousins, acquired with a hefty $100 million fully guaranteed contract in March, was anticipated to be the cornerstone of success. However, Cousins' recent form raises eyebrows, with eight interceptions and no touchdowns in the last four matchups. His fourth-quarter struggles are particularly striking—a passer rating of just 56, with two touchdowns against eight interceptions—a statistic that delineates a challenging period for the veteran play-caller.
Interestingly, Cousins has shown proficiency under different circumstances. His historical completion rate of 67% when playing in Atlanta, complimented by an average of 7.8 yards per attempt, indicates a potential for better outcomes. Comparable rates were observed during his tenure in Minnesota, where he maintained a 67.8% completion rate with a 7.6-yard average, further complicating the assessment of his current form.
The Road Ahead
For the Falcons, proximity to the playoffs hinges on overcoming the immediate hurdle: a one-game deficit behind the 7-6 Buccaneers. Each game grows ever more critical, as the team endeavors to transition from scrappy, close finishes to decisive victories. As they prepare for the Raiders, Giants, Commanders, and Panthers, bridging the gap on the offensive front remains a priority.
On the other hand, Cousins’ trajectory could influence more than just Atlanta's fate. With his performance commanding substantial financial investment and expectations alike, the quarterback's ability to transcend this rough patch may well dictate broader narratives in the NFL season's unfolding drama.
In a league where fortunes change with the rapidity of a fourth-quarter turnover, the Falcons are at a pivotal juncture. The potential is evident—though the execution remains to be realized.