New Orleans Saints at a Crossroads with Alvin Kamara
New Orleans, La. -- The New Orleans Saints find themselves at a critical juncture with their star running back, Alvin Kamara. Kamara's status moving forward remains uncertain after he skipped the final practice of minicamp last week, a decision reportedly tied to contract-related issues, according to his agent, Brad Cicala.
Kamara did not attend OTAs this offseason but returned for mandatory minicamp, a routine he has followed for several years. Despite the uncertainty, Kamara expressed last year that he desires to remain in New Orleans for the long term. "I want a lifetime contract. I want to be here forever," Kamara stated, reaffirming his commitment to the team.
Under new offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak, Kamara is expected to be a focal point of the Saints' 2024 offense. Kubiak, who served as the San Francisco 49ers passing game coordinator last season, saw running back Christian McCaffrey thrive under his system, rushing for a career-high 1,459 yards. The comparison between Kamara and McCaffrey is inevitable, given both players' similar roles and impact on their teams.
"You look at the history of this offense, I'll just say it's good for the running back," Kamara mentioned. "You watch some of the past offenses that Klint has been able to operate, and most recently, you look at Christian and what he was able to do. I'm excited for that."
Performance Peaks and Aging Factors
According to the Roster Management System, running backs with at least four seasons of 100 rushing attempts peak at age 27 and steadily decline in yards after that age. The 27-year-old Kamara is currently navigating this critical period. Rushing attempts also peak at age 27, while rushing average peaks between ages 24-26, highlighting the narrow window in which running backs often achieve their best performances.
Kamara, who turns 29 on July 25, has thrived in previous Saints offenses, catching at least 80 passes in each of his first four seasons and scoring double-digit touchdowns in 2017, 2018, and 2020. However, several external factors contributed to Kamara's statistical decline in recent years.
External Challenges and Statistical Decline
Kamara was suspended for the first three games of the 2023 season due to a violation of the league's personal conduct policy. Additionally, the Saints struggled with offensive line issues and had trouble scoring in the red zone during the first half of the season. These challenges significantly impacted Kamara's overall performance.
"I'm not a stat dude. I don't stack myself up against other guys. You talk about Christian and all, me and Christian talk. I enjoy watching him play. I enjoy when he's able to do the things he does. Personally, I enjoy when I'm having success. But I think my message has been the same since I've been here ... whatever's asked of me, I just do that," Kamara noted.
Financial Implications and Contract Dynamics
Kamara's cap number of $18.55 million for 2024 is the highest on the team, due to previous contract restructures in 2022 and 2023. A possible restructure would not provide Kamara with any new money but would temporarily create cap space by converting a portion of his base salary into a signing bonus. This move would lower his cap number for the current year while increasing it in future years.
If the Saints chose to release Kamara in 2025 without altering his contract, they could save anywhere from $18.9 million to $25 million against the salary cap. However, this situation is influenced by Kamara's inflated $22.4 million base salary for 2025, which would likely be addressed if Kamara remains with the team.
The Saints have about a month before they report to training camp in Irvine, California. Notably, Kamara missed five practices at the end of the 2020 offseason before receiving a new contract. He is currently signed through the 2025 season.
Quotes from Team Personnel
Head coach Dennis Allen expressed uncertainty regarding Kamara's absence from the final practice of minicamp: "I haven't had a chance to talk to him, so I'm not sure why he wasn't out here for the rest of practice."
Quarterback Derek Carr shared his impressions of Kamara: "There was a play last year where I handed him the ball, and I remember thinking, 'Well, that's not open.'... I turned around, and he hit an explosive burst that I've never seen before. And when he showed up [at minicamp], I handed him the ball, and it just feels different."
Offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak also spoke positively about Kamara: "I have talked to him when he was here the last couple of days. He's been great; talked to him on the phone, even when he was gone [for OTAs]. We've been in constant communication."
As the Saints prepare for the upcoming season, the situation with Alvin Kamara remains fluid. Whether through a restructured contract or continued negotiations, the team's decisions in the coming weeks will have a significant impact on their offensive strategy for 2024 and beyond.