Philadelphia Eagles' head coach Nick Sirianni has stood firm on his controversial decision during the team's recent clash with the Atlanta Falcons, which ended in a narrow 22-21 defeat. Despite the outcome, Sirianni remains resolute that his choice to bring out the field goal unit, with just 1:42 remaining, was the right call.
The game was on a knife-edge when Saquon Barkley missed a crucial third-and-3 pass at the Falcons' 13-yard line. A catch would have likely allowed the Eagles to secure an 18-15 victory by running out the clock, given that the Falcons were out of timeouts. Sirianni, however, opted to kick a field goal, aiming to extend the Eagles' lead to 21-15.
This decision, underpinned by analytics, appeared sound and was backed by a 94% chance of sealing the win before the attempt. Surprisingly, even after converting the field goal, the Eagles' win probability dipped to 85%, despite the increased score line.
Following the field goal, the Eagles kicked the ball into the end zone, leaving the Falcons with the daunting task of covering 70 yards in less than 1:40 to tie the game with a touchdown. Defying the odds, the Falcons managed to gain 58 yards in just 43 seconds, subsequently entering the red zone. With 38 seconds to go, Kirk Cousins connected with Drake London for a pivotal touchdown. Younghoe Koo’s extra point then finalized the Falcons' narrow victory.
This latest defeat marks a worrying trend for the Eagles, as it represents their fourth blown lead with less than two minutes remaining in the fourth quarter since the start of the previous season. This unfortunate pattern has placed the team at the top of the NFL chart for surrendering late-game leads during this span.
Sirianni’s decision-making process was deeply analytical. "What I did was I looked through the entire league and said to our analytics department, 'Could you give me every fourth-down decision when teams are in range with a four-minute offense?'" he explained. "So I asked for every time it was one point to five points when the team was up and every fourth down from the 34 and in."
Reflecting on the call, Sirianni highlighted his confidence at the moment. "If you look at the history of that call, and I'm gonna try to drag myself through the mud as much as I possibly can. I've put myself in that situation prior to the call. My conviction in the moment was I knew exactly what I wanted [to do]. Is the outcome always what you want? No, but I was completely convicted there that the field goal was the right decision based off all my studies."
He further emphasized the added pressure of being down by six points instead of three. "There's a different stress being down six as opposed to three. That's also my experience as an offensive coach," Sirianni noted.
Upon revisiting the decision, Sirianni remains convinced it was correct given the circumstances. "Now, I come back and evaluate it? And I'm even more convicted, to be quite honest with you. Because of everything that goes into that," he reiterated.
The Eagles' fan base and analysts alike may question the strategy and its execution, especially in light of the team's struggle to maintain late-game leads. However, Sirianni’s steadfast belief in his analytical approach and decision-making highlights the complexities and pressures of coaching at the highest level.
As the Eagles move forward, the lessons from this defeat and the multiple late-game collapses will undoubtedly be critical for their progression and pursuit of more consistent success in closing out games.